Bitcoin’s influence on the US presidential campaign has been significant, with the original cryptocurrency recently experiencing a range-bound trading pattern. Despite touching $61,000, it has since dropped back to around $58,000. Analysts from Bernstein predict that Bitcoin will continue to remain range-bound until the election picture becomes clearer, potentially closer to the Presidential debates.
In light of the current sentiment, Bernstein interprets the market as bullish for Trump and bearish for Harris. The Trump-led Republican side has actively targeted crypto voters, offering promising policies and even hinting at establishing a national Bitcoin reserve. On the other hand, while some Democrats have shown support for cryptocurrencies, the broader community remains cautious, waiting for more concrete actions to address ongoing regulatory challenges.
Polymarket has emerged as a prominent player in predicting election outcomes, particularly during this US election season. Handling over $500 million in bets and capturing more than 80% of the market share, Polymarket is regarded as a significant source of election forecasts. Unlike traditional polls that are often criticized for bias, Polymarket’s blockchain-based liquid markets are seen as more reflective of actual sentiments due to the “skin in the game” principle.
Since the nomination of Vice President Kamala Harris, Polymarket trends have gradually shifted in her favor. Harris’s odds have risen, surpassing those of Trump by more than 6%, with Harris at 52% and Trump at 46%. This rise in Harris’s odds has triggered a ripple effect in the crypto markets, impacting Bitcoin’s ability to reach previous highs of around $70,000. Despite some Republican supporters dismissing the Polymarket odds as a temporary “honeymoon phase,” analysts believe that it reflects the momentum Harris has gained in recent polls.
While there are skeptics who question the credibility of Polymarket’s odds, Bernstein analysts argue that they are a true reflection of the current political landscape. Comparing Polymarket odds with the 538 project average, which shows Harris leading Trump by 2.4%, analysts believe that Polymarket provides valuable insights into the election race. They highlight that the real test will come after the Presidential debates in September, which will further validate the accuracy of Polymarket’s predictions.
The impact of Bitcoin on the US presidential campaign cannot be underestimated. As cryptocurrencies continue to gain traction in the political landscape, their influence on voter sentiments and election predictions will only grow. It remains to be seen how the dynamics between Bitcoin trading, Polymarket odds, and political outcomes will shape the future of elections in the digital age.