With the stock market embroiled in a state of disquiet thanks to President Donald Trump’s enforcement of significant tariffs, investors find themselves in precarious waters. The announcement of a 25% duty on goods from both Canada and Mexico, paired with an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports, has turned the market topsy-turvy, leading to one of its most unpredictable weeks in months. Historical events suggest that such market behavior isn’t new. However, what stands out this time is the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s tariff strategy, leaving even seasoned investors scratching their heads.
Gone are the days when market responses to federal policies could be more easily anticipated. Analyst Michael Kantrowitz of Piper Sandler articulated the gravity of this situation when he highlighted a stark difference between past selloffs and the current conundrum. The previous selloffs—such as the one driven by the rise in inflation or shifts in the yield curve—offered clear parameters for rectifying market conditions. This time, however, the market’s trajectory hinges heavily on Trump’s unpredictable tariff maneuvers, making future forecasts feel more like navigating a minefield than a calculated investment strategy.
Investing with Great Care
In light of such volatility, it’s crucial for investors to recalibrate their strategies towards a more cautious yet informed approach. Timing the market—an endeavor that too often leads to disillusionment—should be eschewed in favor of equities that demonstrate robust fundamentals. By focusing on stocks that not only withstand economic turbulence but are also poised to thrive in the current sentiment, investors can fundamentally alter their risk exposure.
Piper Sandler took a commendable step in this direction, performing due diligence to identify stocks positioned to exceed market expectations during these turbulent times. Their scrutiny of corporate bond risk spreads has yielded intriguing insights into companies likely to maintain resilience despite overarching economic uncertainty.
Kroger: The Grocery Giant Stands Tall
Leading the pack in Piper’s findings is none other than grocery behemoth Kroger, which saw its shares soar nearly 5% last Friday alone, cementing its status as a bastion of stability amidst uncertainty. Kroger’s predictive forecasting of annual same-store sales exceeding analyst expectations is a powerful endorsement of its business model. This achievement is underscored by a substantial number of optimistic projections from industry analysts, suggesting that the grocery retailer has carved out a reputation for reliability during stormy economic times.
Over the past six months, Kroger has outperformed the broader market by a noteworthy 28%, while the S&P 500 languished, managing only a paltry 7% increase. In an age of grocery-delivery apps and changing consumer habits, Kroger’s continued success suggests not just resilience but a keen adaptability that positions the company favorably in current and future market conditions.
Dollar General: A Steady Discount Haven
In a similar vein, Dollar General has emerged resilient, showcasing its earning potential despite the cloud of tariffs overhead. With its macro select score and corporate bond risk spread score ranking favorably according to Piper’s analytics, Dollar General’s stock surged over 7% on Friday, capping a formidable weekly gain. While it’s true that the broader market has impacted the discount retailer negatively over the past year, the recent uptick of nearly 13% demonstrates its ability to rebound from adversity.
What makes Dollar General noteworthy is its strategic positioning as an affordable shopping option for consumers grappling with inflationary pressures. The company’s resilience provides investors with a unique layer of confidence, underscoring its potential to weather economic storms while tapping into a demographic increasingly reliant on budget-friendly alternatives.
Hess: The Energy Player with Promise
Not to be overlooked, Hess Corporation, an oil and gas producer, has also made a splash among stocks in Piper’s analysis. The company’s ability to leverage its macro select score while maintaining an encouraging corporate bond risk spread score showcases its position as a potential safeguard against the looming economic turbulence posed by tariffs. Hess’s stock saw an increase of nearly 3% last Friday, contributing to an overall robust performance in the early weeks of 2025. Amidst a sector often viewed as volatile, Hess exhibits a stability that could appeal to investors wary of the ongoing shifts in economic conditions resulting from trade policy.
In a world saturated with unpredictability, a proactive and discerning approach to investing remains paramount. By placing emphasis on companies exhibiting strong fundamentals and possessing an ability to adapt, investors can hope to navigate the complexities of a market swayed by tariff-heavy decisions.