In a recent statement, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda made it clear that the central bank would not directly respond to currency moves when setting monetary policy. This stance comes in the midst of market speculation that the sharp falls in the yen could potentially prompt the BOJ to raise interest rates. Despite the weakening yen and its potential impact on import prices, Ueda emphasized that rate hikes would not solely be triggered by currency fluctuations. The key consideration for the BOJ is whether such price pressures would translate into broader inflation and wage growth.
While the yen’s depreciation has raised concerns in the market, Governor Ueda reiterated his optimism about the wage outlook and indicated the possibility of another rate hike. He highlighted that if trend inflation, which remains below 2%, begins to move towards the target level as projected, the BOJ may consider adjusting its monetary policy. This would be contingent upon the risk of wages and inflation rising more than anticipated and pushing trend inflation above 2%.
Following the BOJ’s recent departure from ultra-loose monetary policy, the yen has been on a downward trajectory. This shift in policy direction has led market participants to anticipate a delay in further rate hikes, as the central bank’s dovish guidance implied a cautious approach towards normalizing interest rates. The yen’s current level against the dollar, close to a 34-year low, has raised concerns about potential currency intervention by Tokyo authorities.
Governor Ueda also highlighted the evolving corporate behavior in Japan, with more companies showing willingness to raise prices and wages. This shift in behavior, coupled with signs of improvement in trend inflation, could prompt the BOJ to adjust the level of monetary stimulus. However, the timing of such adjustments remains uncertain, as it depends on how inflation progresses in line with the bank’s forecasts.
Analysts are closely watching the BOJ’s upcoming quarterly growth and inflation forecasts, scheduled to be released at the next policy meeting. These forecasts are expected to provide insights into the potential timing of the next rate hike. According to projections by the Japan Center for Economic Research, a majority of economists foresee at least one more rate hike this year. Some market participants believe that the weak yen could serve as a catalyst for the next rate adjustment, which is anticipated to happen later in the year.
While a weak yen has benefits for exports, it poses challenges for households and retailers by increasing the cost of imported raw materials. This dual impact makes currency moves a significant consideration for policymakers in Japan. Governor Ueda’s emphasis on trend inflation, which factors out one-off influences like fuel costs, underscores the importance of stable price movements in assessing the overall health of the economy and its impact on monetary policy decisions.