Bitcoin analyst Willy Woo has made a bold prediction regarding the future of Bitcoin, suggesting that once ETFs have completed their role, Bitcoin will outperform the gold market cap. This forecast comes as recently launched Bitcoin ETFs have brought new attention to the cryptocurrency market.
Woo anticipates BTC price targets of $91,000 at the bear market bottom and $650,000 at the bull market top. However, he notes that these targets may not be achieved in the current cycle due to the slow nature of capital deployments. It is crucial to consider the time it takes for ETF investors to fully deploy their capital as per asset manager recommendations.
Back of the Envelope Calculations
In support of his forecast, Woo outlines six points based on his “back of the envelope calculations.” He starts by looking at the $100 trillion managed by asset managers, with a 2% allocation recommendation. This could potentially result in about $2 trillion being allocated into BTC, a figure that might increase over time.
According to Woo’s estimates, BTC currently holds around $561,159,959 of investment, based on on-chain data. An inflow of $2 trillion would significantly increase this amount to over $2.56 trillion. By using the MVRV ratio to calculate market cap versus money invested, Woo projects market capitalizations of $12.8 trillion and $1.8 trillion for Bitcoin in bull and bear market scenarios, equating to $650,000 and $91,000, respectively.
Woo believes that once asset manager capital is fully deployed, Bitcoin has the potential to surpass gold capitalization. Drawing parallels to gold’s 12-year bull run after the approval of its ETF, Woo suggests that Bitcoin could experience similar growth in the future.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $64,524, with a 0.49% increase in the last 24 hours. Bloomberg reports that Bitcoin’s dominance in the crypto market has reached a three-year high, indicating strong demand for U.S. exchange-traded funds holding the digital asset. Bitcoin currently accounts for approximately 55% of the $2.4 trillion cryptocurrency market, the highest level since April 2021.
By carefully analyzing Willy Woo’s bold forecast and considering the factors influencing Bitcoin’s future, it is evident that the cryptocurrency market is poised for significant growth and transformation in the coming years.